Major Shifts in Retail in Poland

Surprising insights. All signs point to a fascinating development in Poland’s retail sector in the coming years. How should we prepare for these major changes?

Who will lose?
According to a report by consulting firm Bain&Company titled "How Brands Can Prepare for European Retailing’s Tectonic Shifts", significant transformations are brewing in Poland’s retail market.
All indications suggest that the market share of hyper- and supermarkets may shrink by as much as 20% in the coming years.

Hypermarkets decline, discounters thrive

Hyper- and supermarkets, offering both food and non-food products, have historically benefited from economies of scale, enabling low prices and strong market positions. But nothing lasts forever. The impending shifts stem from societal changes and, consequently, evolving consumer lifestyles.
Multi-hour trips, often over several kilometers, to out-of-town big-box stores have lost their appeal. Customers are increasingly abandoning this shopping format.

Who will gain?
In this scenario, we can expect a rapid (already noticeable) rise in the popularity of discount chains like Lidl and Aldi. Unlike hyper- and supermarkets, these stores have built their offers around high-quality private-label products at reasonable prices. Over time, this model evolved to include well-known brands at attractive prices. A hallmark of discounters is their proximity to customers and exclusive partnerships with carefully selected brands.

Proximity and curated brands win

"It is clear that this model aligns with customer expectations: people prefer shopping more frequently, valuing proximity combined with access to staple food products in one place. Although this model has existed in Europe for years, it has gained increasing traction in recent years. In Poland, Lidl and Biedronka together hold over 30% market share" - reads the Bain&Company report - "The trends highlighted in the report are clearly visible in Poland. Last year, the growth in the number of discount stores was not as high as in previous years, but still amounted to nearly 150 new outlets. Online retail growth rates reach double digits. Meanwhile, the hypermarket sector clearly shows stagnation in growth momentum". Another trend noted in "How Brands Can Prepare for European Retailing’s Tectonic Shifts" is the steady progress of the e-commerce market.

Retail in Poland: who loses, who wins

What does this mean for us?
The market trends described by Bain&Company will undoubtedly significantly influence the shaping of retail in the coming years. "The changes, whose effects will become evident over the next 10 years, will also pose challenges for consumer goods manufacturers, who will need to adapt their strategies for both traditional and online sales channels. These market trends will undoubtedly have a major influence on the evolution of the retail market in the near future", according to "How Brands Can Prepare for European Retailing’s Tectonic Shifts". Is a retail revolution truly underway? What will be its long-term consequences, and will it bring about sweeping changes?

More information about Bain&Company and their report: here.

Summary

The Bain&Company report "How Brands Can Prepare for European Retailing’s Tectonic Shifts" indicates that the market share of hyper- and supermarkets in Poland could shrink by up to 20%. Customers are abandoning long trips to urban fringes for big-box stores, opting instead for nearby discounters such as Lidl and Aldi.

In Poland, Lidl and Biedronka together hold over 30% of the market share, and nearly 150 new discount outlets opened last year. E-commerce is also growing, with growth rates in the double digits. These changes over the next 10 years will compel consumer goods manufacturers to realign their strategies for both traditional and digital sales channels.